Market Sizing: How big is online video advertising?

Television advertising still dominates the scene when it comes to advertising revenue. Yet in the last 5 years, Internet advertising has nearly doubled proving that there is little doubt that advertising is increasingly going online. Within Internet advertising, the video advertising component, while still relatively small, has been growing steadily resulting in a tremendous opportunity for innovative entrepreneurs disrupting this emerging market.

But exactly how big is the online video advertising market? Applying a bottoms-up approach yields the following results:

Total # of Video Ad Views = U.S. Pop. X Average # of Video Ads viewed per person
Total # of Unique Video Ad Views = 315mm X *840
Total # of Unique Video Ad Views = 265B

Average Price per View =  CPM / 1000
Average Price per View =  $15 / 1000
Average Price per View = .015

Central Equation
Video Ad Market Size = Total # of Unique Video Ad Views X Average $ per View
Video Ad Market Size = 265,000,000,000 X .015
Video Ad Market Size = $4B

U.S. Market Size = ~$4B
**Global Market Size = ~$16B

*Based on ComScore 2012 U.S. data, market sizing estimates
**Applied a multiplier of 4 to get the global market size.

Doing a quick search through the Wall Street Journal – it appears that they agree with this market size of $4B for the U.S. market.

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It is important to note two trends in the video ad market that matter and will significantly impact the size of the market.

1)   Contraction Force: The average price per video ad is decreasing. In 2011 at top tier sites ads were in the $17-$25 range. In 2012 that range fell to $15-$20. The WSJ argued that this price will only decrease further from here.

2)   Expansion Force: Video advertising may only be a $4B market as of 2012, but it is an increasing segment of the overall $42.5B digital media market—a market which is growing in size itself.

The net effect of these two forces is hard to determine as they act in opposite directions, but the overall affect will likely be an increase in the market size in the next 5 years, especially as the internet plays an increasingly important role vis a vis the television.

Media Cause

The Product

Media Cause is a marketing company that focuses on helping non-profits increase awareness for their programs, raise more money online, and better engage with their supporters. The startup provides marketing and social media advertising support to non-profits of a wide range of sizes and budgets.

This is accomplished primarily through the creation of a large and engaged volunteer community. Non-profits start the process by signing up for Media Cause and requesting services from volunteers that match their specific needs. SEO requests, Google Grants, digital advertising campaigns and social media initiatives are separated into smaller projects called “challenges” that are then completed by anyone in the volunteer community. In exchange for the marketing and advertising support they provide, volunteers are then recognized publicly through facebook posts, tweets, blog posts and LinkedIn recommendations.

The Market

With 1.8 million 501(c)3 non-profits in the US and many more non-profits around the world there is a large, yet predominantly untapped market for the marketing and advertising of all these non-profit organizations. Most non-profit organizations run on tight budgets and focus the vast majority of their efforts on their organization’s mission. They often have little time and few resources to advertise themselves, raise money or increase their online presence. Yet the need to engage in these activities is critical for non-profits to grow and strengthen their impacts. Thus, there is a clear need in the marketing and advertising industry for services that target non-profit organizations. Media Cause is an interesting startup in that it seeks to close the marketing and advertising gap between non-profit organizations and their for-profit peers.

Media Cause is also a particularly attractive company given recent trends in marketing and advertising that seem to be making it easier for non-profits to launch and garner support. To begin with, fundraising has been democratized through crowd funding platforms like Kickstarter. The spread of the Internet from computers to mobile devices has also offered non-profits with the ability to reach more users via different mediums. And finally the availability of large, ease to use social networks like Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn, has enabled the deployment of cheap, yet effective marketing campaigns—campaigns which once harnessed by expert volunteers through Media Cause’s platform can result in a high payoff for non-profits looking to raise money or spread awareness.

The Profit Potential

Media Cause is an early entrant into the non-profit marketing and advertising space. And while it is true that many of the advertising and marketing mechanisms that exist for for-profit companies are also available to non-profit companies, Media Cause is the only company that is entirely focused on affordable and efficient services for the non-profit niche market. Thus, the startup currently has few competitors and is way ahead of any would-be-competitors.

Interestingly, enough, at the moment, Media Cause is itself a non-profit organization. However, the startup has experimented with a few small revenue models including offering premium online marketing services to larger non-profits. It is entirely feasible for Media Cause to be run as a for-profit company by developing a whole line of services that scale all the way down to smaller non-profits and take more of a strategic consulting role in the marketing and advertising of non-profits rather than simply crowd sourcing much of the work to volunteers. In terms of exit opportunities, Media Cause could very easily be acquired by a larger advertising or marketing company (such as Pulse 360) or become the marketing/advertising arm of a non-profit strategic consulting firm (like Bridgespan).

To sum, Media Cause possesses all of the ingredients of a potentially very successful startup: an innovative product, the right market timing, growing demand, a clear competitive advantage, and feasible exit opportunities. I would love to be a shareholder in the company.


Tumblr: Innovation in Advertising

I have had something of a difficult time getting into the groove with Tumblr. I have nothing really against the product. Tumblr has a unique microblogging / social networking platform that clearly adds value value to its largely teen and college user segments. In 2011Tumblr boasted an 85% retention rate (compared to, for example, 40% at Twitter). It’s just that my current social media toolkit provides me with a range of options for all my needs. I have…

  • Twitter – for my status updates or thought of the day
  • Pinterest – for my photos / video “blogging”
  • WordPress – for my longer, more thoughtful posts
  • Facebook – for my day to day social interaction
  • Quora – for the questions I have that my current network can’t answer

With all these tools, I’m not really sure where Tumblr will fit into my current computer-mediated-communication (CmC) tool-box. However, there is one thing about Tumblr that I thing is truly innovative and something to look out for: their advertising structure.

The founder of Tumblr, David Karp, has long been a critic of traditional banner or adsense advertising. It can be invasive / annoying for users and costly / ineffective for advertisers. Recently, Tumblr has been toying with some new advertising models that seem to be headed in the right direction.

For example there is the Highlighted Post option. Users or advertisers can pay $1-$5 and have their post get a special sticker to make it standout from the rest in the dashboard. To draw a parallel to one of my favorite sites 4-5 years ago (Digg), it’s like you are paying for “diggs” so that your post ranks higher and therefore gets more views. Sticker options include words such as “On sale now” or “Today only.” These paid blog posts stay at the top of Tumblr home pages of users who are already following those blogs. Users can also click “dismiss” to remove the adds. Furthermore, advertisers are only allowed to link to pages that appear on their own Tumblr blogs.The combined effect of these features is a less invasive experience for users and a more effective, targetted add for advertisers.  It is therefore no surprise that advertisers are lining up to access the 60 million blogs on Tumblr.